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ASPAC vs Soleil — Championnat National 2019

ASPAC
ASPAC
FT
4 – 2
Soleil
Soleil
1/26/2019Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 13Stade de l'Amitié (Cotonou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

ASPAC54%
×Draw26%
Soleil20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASPAC
1.48
Soleil
0.79

ASPAC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 61 away

creates per match

ASPAC
1.27
Soleil
0.82

allows per match

ASPAC
0.76
Soleil
1.70

finishing

ASPAC+0.00on par
Soleil+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASPAC ↓

Soleil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

ASPAC or draw
80%
ASPAC or Soleil
74%
Draw or Soleil
46%

Winning margin

ASPAC wins by 2+
27%
Soleil wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ASPAC 1+ goals
77%
ASPAC 2+ goals
43%
ASPAC 3+ goals
19%
Soleil 1+ goals
55%
Soleil 2+ goals
19%
Soleil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ASPAC (draw refunded)
73%
Soleil (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASPAC at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Soleil away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASPAC attack 1.27 + Soleil defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Soleil attack 0.82 + ASPAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

ASPAC scores more
54%
level
26%
Soleil scores more
20%

ASPAC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "ASPAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASPAC 4 – 2 Soleil

ASPAC beat Soleil 4-2 in Championnat National on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Amitié (Cotonou).