Solec K. 1–1 Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Solec K.

FT

1 – 1

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

5/13/2023

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Solec K.25%

×Draw23%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solec K.Expected goals in this matchPogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.82

Solec K.

1.20

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.82

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 85 away

1.03

creates per match

1.55

2.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Solec K.

1.03

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.55

allows per match

Solec K.

2.09

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Solec K.+0.00on par

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Solec K. ↓

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Solec K. or draw

48%

Solec K. or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

77%

Draw or Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce

75%

Winning margin

Solec K. wins by 2+

10%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Solec K. 1+ goals

70%

Solec K. 2+ goals

34%

Solec K. 3+ goals

12%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals

84%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals

54%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Solec K. (draw refunded)

33%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Solec K. at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.09 · 33 matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Solec K. attack 1.03 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.55 + Solec K. defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Solec K. scores more

25%

level

23%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more

52%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff