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Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Solec K.
Solec K.
11/18/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce47%
×Draw24%
Solec K.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.70
Solec K.
1.28

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce creates 33% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.27
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce
1.39
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or draw
71%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce or Solec K.
76%
Draw or Solec K.
53%

Winning margin

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce wins by 2+
25%
Solec K. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 1+ goals
82%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 2+ goals
51%
Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3+ goals
24%
Solec K. 1+ goals
72%
Solec K. 2+ goals
37%
Solec K. 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce (draw refunded)
62%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce attack 1.27 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce scores more
47%
level
24%
Solec K. scores more
29%

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 5 – 2 Solec K.

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce beat Solec K. 5-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejsko-Gminny w Nowych Skalmierzycach in Nowe Skalmierzyce.