Sola 2–3 Pors Grenland: Result & Stats

Sola

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pors Grenland

10/27/2024

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 26Sola Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sola35%

×Draw22%

Pors Grenland43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SolaExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.96

Sola

1.75

Pors Grenland

1.96

Pors Grenland creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

2.46

creates per match

2.15

1.77

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Sola

2.46

Pors Grenland

2.15

allows per match

Sola

1.77

Pors Grenland

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sola+0.00on par

Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sola ↓

Pors Grenland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sola or draw

57%

Sola or Pors Grenland

78%

Draw or Pors Grenland

65%

Winning margin

Sola wins by 2+

18%

Pors Grenland wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sola 1+ goals

83%

Sola 2+ goals

52%

Sola 3+ goals

25%

Pors Grenland 1+ goals

86%

Pors Grenland 2+ goals

58%

Pors Grenland 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Sola (draw refunded)

45%

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sola at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sola attack 2.46 + Pors Grenland defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Pors Grenland attack 2.15 + Sola defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sola scores more

35%

level

22%

Pors Grenland scores more

43%

Pors Grenland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff