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Pors Grenland vs Sola — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
FT
4 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Sola
Sola
6/1/20243. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9Pors Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pors Grenland59%
×Draw19%
Sola22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pors Grenland
2.55
Sola
1.52

Pors Grenland creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pors Grenland
2.42
Sola
2.15

allows per match

Pors Grenland
0.89
Sola
2.69

finishing

Pors Grenland+0.00on par
Sola+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pors Grenland ↓

Sola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Pors Grenland or draw
78%
Pors Grenland or Sola
81%
Draw or Sola
41%

Winning margin

Pors Grenland wins by 2+
39%
Sola wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pors Grenland 1+ goals
92%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
72%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
46%
Sola 1+ goals
78%
Sola 2+ goals
45%
Sola 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
73%
Sola (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pors Grenland at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Sola away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pors Grenland attack 2.42 + Sola defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.55

Sola attack 2.15 + Pors Grenland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Pors Grenland scores more
59%
level
19%
Sola scores more
22%

Pors Grenland at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pors Grenland vs Sola

Pors Grenland and Sola drew 4-4 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Pors Stadion in Porsgrunn.