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SOL vs Issia Wazi — Ligue 1 2019

SOL
SOL
FT
1 – 0
Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
2/1/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Parc des Sports de Treichville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SOL40%
×Draw28%
Issia Wazi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL
1.27
Issia Wazi
1.09

SOL creates 17% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 10 away

creates per match

SOL
1.14
Issia Wazi
1.00

allows per match

SOL
1.18
Issia Wazi
1.40

finishing

SOL+0.00on par
Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL ↓

Issia Wazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SOL or draw
68%
SOL or Issia Wazi
72%
Draw or Issia Wazi
60%

Winning margin

SOL wins by 2+
18%
Issia Wazi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SOL 1+ goals
72%
SOL 2+ goals
36%
SOL 3+ goals
14%
Issia Wazi 1+ goals
66%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
30%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SOL (draw refunded)
56%
Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 88 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL attack 1.14 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + SOL defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SOL scores more
40%
level
28%
Issia Wazi scores more
32%

SOL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SOL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SOL 1 – 0 Issia Wazi

SOL beat Issia Wazi 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Parc des Sports de Treichville in Abidjan.