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Issia Wazi vs SOL — Ligue 1 2019

Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
FT
1 – 2
SOL
SOL
8/24/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Issia Wazi25%
×Draw27%
SOL48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issia Wazi
0.91
SOL
1.39

SOL creates 53% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 90 away

creates per match

Issia Wazi
0.60
SOL
1.08

allows per match

Issia Wazi
1.70
SOL
1.22

finishing

Issia Wazi+0.00on par
SOL+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issia Wazi ↓

SOL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Issia Wazi or draw
52%
Issia Wazi or SOL
73%
Draw or SOL
75%

Winning margin

Issia Wazi wins by 2+
8%
SOL wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Issia Wazi 1+ goals
60%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
23%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
6%
SOL 1+ goals
75%
SOL 2+ goals
40%
SOL 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
34%
SOL (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issia Wazi at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

SOL away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issia Wazi attack 0.60 + SOL defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

SOL attack 1.08 + Issia Wazi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Issia Wazi scores more
25%
level
27%
SOL scores more
48%

SOL at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SOL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Issia Wazi vs SOL

SOL beat Issia Wazi 2-1 in Ligue 1 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.