Sol de Mayo 1–0 Independiente Neuquén

Sol de Mayo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Neuquén

11/24/2018

Torneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 15Estadio Sol De Mayo (Viedma, Provincia de Río Negro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sol de Mayo56%

×Draw25%

Independiente Neuquén19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sol de MayoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Neuquén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.82

Sol de Mayo

1.60

Independiente Neuquén

0.82

Sol de Mayo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 12 away

1.37

creates per match

0.50

1.14

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sol de Mayo

1.37

Independiente Neuquén

0.50

allows per match

Sol de Mayo

1.14

Independiente Neuquén

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sol de Mayo ↓

Independiente Neuquén →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sol de Mayo or draw

81%

Sol de Mayo or Independiente Neuquén

75%

Draw or Independiente Neuquén

44%

Winning margin

Sol de Mayo wins by 2+

30%

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sol de Mayo 1+ goals

80%

Sol de Mayo 2+ goals

47%

Sol de Mayo 3+ goals

22%

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals

56%

Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals

20%

Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)

74%

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sol de Mayo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Independiente Neuquén away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sol de Mayo attack 1.37 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Independiente Neuquén attack 0.50 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sol de Mayo scores more

56%

level

25%

Independiente Neuquén scores more

19%

Sol de Mayo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sol de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff