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Independiente Neuquén vs Sol de Mayo — Torneo Federal A 2018

Independiente Neuquén
Independiente Neuquén
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sol de Mayo
Sol de Mayo
10/6/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 1 - 6Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Independiente Neuquén43%
×Draw29%
Sol de Mayo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Neuquén
1.22
Sol de Mayo
0.94

Independiente Neuquén creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 112 away

creates per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.00
Sol de Mayo
0.62

allows per match

Independiente Neuquén
1.25
Sol de Mayo
1.44

finishing

Independiente Neuquén+0.00on par
Sol de Mayo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Neuquén ↓

Sol de Mayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Neuquén or draw
72%
Independiente Neuquén or Sol de Mayo
71%
Draw or Sol de Mayo
57%

Winning margin

Independiente Neuquén wins by 2+
19%
Sol de Mayo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente Neuquén 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Neuquén 2+ goals
34%
Independiente Neuquén 3+ goals
12%
Sol de Mayo 1+ goals
61%
Sol de Mayo 2+ goals
24%
Sol de Mayo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Neuquén (draw refunded)
60%
Sol de Mayo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Neuquén at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Sol de Mayo away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Neuquén attack 1.00 + Sol de Mayo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sol de Mayo attack 0.62 + Independiente Neuquén defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Independiente Neuquén scores more
43%
level
29%
Sol de Mayo scores more
28%

Independiente Neuquén at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Independiente Neuquén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Neuquén 1 – 0 Sol de Mayo

Independiente Neuquén beat Sol de Mayo 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Rosas y Perito Moreno (Neuquén, Provincia de Neuquén).