SOL DE America 1–2 Libertad Asuncion

SOL DE America

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Libertad Asuncion

2/18/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

SOL DE America26%

×Draw24%

Libertad Asuncion50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SOL DE AmericaExpected goals in this matchLibertad Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.67

SOL DE America

1.14

Libertad Asuncion

1.67

Libertad Asuncion creates 46% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 97 away

1.20

creates per match

1.84

1.50

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

SOL DE America

1.20

Libertad Asuncion

1.84

allows per match

SOL DE America

1.50

Libertad Asuncion

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Libertad Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw

50%

SOL DE America or Libertad Asuncion

76%

Draw or Libertad Asuncion

74%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+

10%

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals

68%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

32%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

11%

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals

81%

Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals

50%

Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

34%

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SOL DE America scores more

26%

level

24%

Libertad Asuncion scores more

50%

Libertad Asuncion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff