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Libertad Asuncion vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/22/2021Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 17Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Libertad Asuncion58%
×Draw22%
SOL DE America19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
1.88
SOL DE America
0.98

Libertad Asuncion creates 92% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 64 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.85
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.76
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
81%
Libertad Asuncion or SOL DE America
78%
Draw or SOL DE America
42%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
34%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
85%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
56%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
29%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
62%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
26%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
75%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.85 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Libertad Asuncion defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
58%
level
22%
SOL DE America scores more
19%

Libertad Asuncion at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Libertad Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs SOL DE America

SOL DE America beat Libertad Asuncion 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Nicolás Leoz in Asunción.