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SOL DE America vs Guaraní de Fram — Division Intermedia 2020

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
6/8/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 12Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

SOL DE America50%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Fram22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.36
Guaraní de Fram
0.80

SOL DE America creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.26
Guaraní de Fram
0.87

allows per match

SOL DE America
0.74
Guaraní de Fram
1.47

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Guaraní de Fram →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
78%
SOL DE America or Guaraní de Fram
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Fram
50%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
24%
Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
74%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
39%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
16%
Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
55%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
19%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
69%
Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 38 matches

Guaraní de Fram away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.26 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guaraní de Fram attack 0.87 + SOL DE America defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SOL DE America scores more
50%
level
28%
Guaraní de Fram scores more
22%

SOL DE America at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SOL DE America 0 – 0 Guaraní de Fram

SOL DE America and Guaraní de Fram drew 0-0 in Division Intermedia on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni.