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Guaraní de Fram vs SOL DE America — Division Intermedia 2020

Guaraní de Fram
Guaraní de Fram
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
J. Rivarola 45+2'
R. O. Duarte Irala 27'
9/15/2025Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Villa Alegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guaraní de Fram32%
×Draw25%
SOL DE America43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Fram
1.34
SOL DE America
1.58

SOL DE America creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.47
SOL DE America
1.36

allows per match

Guaraní de Fram
1.80
SOL DE America
1.22

finishing

Guaraní de Fram+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Fram ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guaraní de Fram or draw
57%
Guaraní de Fram or SOL DE America
75%
Draw or SOL DE America
68%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Fram wins by 2+
14%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Guaraní de Fram 1+ goals
74%
Guaraní de Fram 2+ goals
39%
Guaraní de Fram 3+ goals
15%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
79%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
47%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Fram (draw refunded)
43%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Fram at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Fram attack 1.47 + SOL DE America defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

SOL DE America attack 1.36 + Guaraní de Fram defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guaraní de Fram scores more
32%
level
25%
SOL DE America scores more
43%

SOL DE America at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
R. O. Duarte Irala
45+2'
J. Rivarola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Fram 0–2 SOL DE America

SOL DE America beat Guaraní de Fram 2-0 in Division Intermedia on September 15, 2025.

Goals: R. O. Duarte Irala (27'), J. Rivarola (45+2').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Alegre in Encarnación.