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SOL DE America vs Cerro Porteno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
5/14/2022Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 16Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

SOL DE America26%
×Draw25%
Cerro Porteno49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.09
Cerro Porteno
1.58

Cerro Porteno creates 45% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 96 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.20
Cerro Porteno
1.66

allows per match

SOL DE America
1.50
Cerro Porteno
0.98

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
51%
SOL DE America or Cerro Porteno
75%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
74%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
10%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
66%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
30%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
10%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
79%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
47%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
35%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Cerro Porteno attack 1.66 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SOL DE America scores more
26%
level
25%
Cerro Porteno scores more
49%

Cerro Porteno at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SOL DE America vs Cerro Porteno

SOL DE America beat Cerro Porteno 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.