Cerro Porteno 1–0 SOL DE America: Result & Stats

Cerro Porteno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SOL DE America

4/4/2021

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio General Pablo Rojas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cerro Porteno57%

×Draw23%

SOL DE America20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerro PortenoExpected goals in this matchSOL DE America

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.01

Cerro Porteno

1.85

SOL DE America

1.01

Cerro Porteno creates 83% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 64 away

1.79

creates per match

1.20

0.82

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Cerro Porteno

1.79

SOL DE America

1.20

allows per match

Cerro Porteno

0.82

SOL DE America

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

SOL DE America →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw

80%

Cerro Porteno or SOL DE America

77%

Draw or SOL DE America

43%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

33%

SOL DE America wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

84%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

55%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

28%

SOL DE America 1+ goals

64%

SOL DE America 2+ goals

27%

SOL DE America 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

74%

SOL DE America (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more

57%

level

23%

SOL DE America scores more

20%

Cerro Porteno at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff