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SOL DE America vs 3 de Febrero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

SOL DE America
SOL DE America
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
2/24/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 4Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SOL DE America45%
×Draw25%
3 de Febrero30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOL DE America
1.55
3 de Febrero
1.21

SOL DE America creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 11 away

creates per match

SOL DE America
1.20
3 de Febrero
0.91

allows per match

SOL DE America
1.50
3 de Febrero
1.91

finishing

SOL DE America+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOL DE America ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SOL DE America or draw
70%
SOL DE America or 3 de Febrero
75%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
55%

Winning margin

SOL DE America wins by 2+
23%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SOL DE America 1+ goals
79%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
46%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
20%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
70%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
34%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SOL DE America (draw refunded)
60%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOL DE America at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + SOL DE America defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SOL DE America scores more
45%
level
25%
3 de Febrero scores more
30%

SOL DE America at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SOL DE America will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: SOL DE America 4–1 3 de Febrero

SOL DE America beat 3 de Febrero 4-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 24, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni (Asunción).