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3 de Febrero vs SOL DE America — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SOL DE America
SOL DE America
5/3/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 15Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

3 de Febrero38%
×Draw25%
SOL DE America38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.46
SOL DE America
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.00
SOL DE America
1.20

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.73
SOL DE America
1.91

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
SOL DE America+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

SOL DE America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
62%
3 de Febrero or SOL DE America
75%
Draw or SOL DE America
62%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
18%
SOL DE America wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
77%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
43%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
18%
SOL DE America 1+ goals
77%
SOL DE America 2+ goals
43%
SOL DE America 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
50%
SOL DE America (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

SOL DE America away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.00 + SOL DE America defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

SOL DE America attack 1.20 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
38%
level
25%
SOL DE America scores more
38%

3 de Febrero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3 de Febrero 2 – 1 SOL DE America

3 de Febrero beat SOL DE America 2-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 3, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).