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Sokol Živanice vs Slovan Liberec II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
8/17/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 2Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sokol Živanice48%
×Draw23%
Slovan Liberec II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.85
Slovan Liberec II
1.39

Sokol Živanice creates 33% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Slovan Liberec II
1.48

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Slovan Liberec II
2.05

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Slovan Liberec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
71%
Sokol Živanice or Slovan Liberec II
77%
Draw or Slovan Liberec II
52%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
27%
Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
84%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
55%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
28%
Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
75%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
40%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
62%
Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
48%
level
23%
Slovan Liberec II scores more
29%

Sokol Živanice at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Slovan Liberec II

Slovan Liberec II beat Sokol Živanice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.