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Slovan Liberec II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
3/16/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 19UMT Doubí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Slovan Liberec II53%
×Draw22%
Sokol Živanice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec II
1.95
Sokol Živanice
1.29

Slovan Liberec II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II
2.03
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II
1.45
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw
75%
Slovan Liberec II or Sokol Živanice
78%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
47%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
30%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
86%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
58%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
31%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
72%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
37%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
68%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more
53%
level
22%
Sokol Živanice scores more
25%

Slovan Liberec II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec II vs Sokol Živanice

Slovan Liberec II beat Sokol Živanice 4-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at UMT Doubí in Liberec.