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Sokol Živanice vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
CANC
15:00
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
6/2/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 26Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sokol Živanice47%
×Draw22%
Dukla Praha II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.92
Dukla Praha II
1.54

Sokol Živanice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Dukla Praha II
1.78

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Dukla Praha II
2.17

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
69%
Sokol Živanice or Dukla Praha II
78%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
53%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
26%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
85%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
57%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
30%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
79%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
45%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
60%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Dukla Praha II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dukla Praha II attack 1.78 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
47%
level
22%
Dukla Praha II scores more
31%

Sokol Živanice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sokol Živanice host Dukla Praha II

June 2, 2021: Sokol Živanice take on Dukla Praha II in 3. liga - CFL B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sokol Živanice host Dukla Praha II at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.