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Dukla Praha II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
FT
1 – 1
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
9/28/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Stadion SK Viktorie Jirny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dukla Praha II44%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha II
1.73
Sokol Živanice
1.46

Dukla Praha II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha II
1.58
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Dukla Praha II
1.79
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw
67%
Dukla Praha II or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
56%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
23%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
82%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
52%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
25%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
57%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.58 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more
44%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
33%

Dukla Praha II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha II vs Sokol Živanice

Dukla Praha II and Sokol Živanice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Viktorie Jirny in Jirny.