Sokol Živanice 0–4 Bohemians 1905 II

Sokol Živanice

FT

0 – 4

Bohemians 1905 II

10/2/2021

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 10Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sokol Živanice47%

×Draw26%

Bohemians 1905 II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol ŽivaniceExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905 II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.10

Sokol Živanice

1.53

Bohemians 1905 II

1.10

Sokol Živanice creates 39% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 20 away

1.66

creates per match

0.90

1.30

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Sokol Živanice

1.66

Bohemians 1905 II

0.90

allows per match

Sokol Živanice

1.30

Bohemians 1905 II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw

73%

Sokol Živanice or Bohemians 1905 II

74%

Draw or Bohemians 1905 II

53%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+

24%

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals

78%

Sokol Živanice 2+ goals

45%

Sokol Živanice 3+ goals

20%

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals

67%

Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals

30%

Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)

63%

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bohemians 1905 II attack 0.90 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more

47%

level

26%

Bohemians 1905 II scores more

27%

Sokol Živanice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff