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Bohemians 1905 II vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
CANC
08:15
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
5/23/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 25Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bohemians 1905 II52%
×Draw23%
Sokol Živanice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905 II
1.80
Sokol Živanice
1.18

Bohemians 1905 II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905 II
1.72
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Bohemians 1905 II
1.22
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 II ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 II or draw
75%
Bohemians 1905 II or Sokol Živanice
77%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
48%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
29%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
83%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
54%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
27%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
69%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
33%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
67%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.72 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bohemians 1905 II scores more
52%
level
23%
Sokol Živanice scores more
25%

Bohemians 1905 II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bohemians 1905 II host Sokol Živanice

May 23, 2021: Bohemians 1905 II take on Sokol Živanice in 3. liga - CFL B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bohemians 1905 II host Sokol Živanice at Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.