Sokol Živanice 3–1 Benešov: Result & Stats

Sokol Živanice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Benešov

9/10/2022

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 6Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Živanice53%

×Draw24%

Benešov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol ŽivaniceExpected goals in this matchBenešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Sokol Živanice

1.73

Benešov

1.05

Sokol Živanice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

1.66

creates per match

0.80

1.30

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Sokol Živanice

1.66

Benešov

0.80

allows per match

Sokol Živanice

1.30

Benešov

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Benešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw

77%

Sokol Živanice or Benešov

76%

Draw or Benešov

47%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+

29%

Benešov wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals

82%

Sokol Živanice 2+ goals

52%

Sokol Živanice 3+ goals

25%

Benešov 1+ goals

65%

Benešov 2+ goals

28%

Benešov 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)

70%

Benešov (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Benešov away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.73

Benešov attack 0.80 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more

53%

level

24%

Benešov scores more

23%

Sokol Živanice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff