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Benešov vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Benešov
Benešov
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
4/7/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 21Stadion u Konopiště

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Benešov42%
×Draw24%
Sokol Živanice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benešov
1.64
Sokol Živanice
1.47

Benešov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Benešov
1.40
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Benešov
1.80
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Benešov+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benešov ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Benešov or draw
66%
Benešov or Sokol Živanice
76%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
58%

Winning margin

Benešov wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Benešov 1+ goals
81%
Benešov 2+ goals
49%
Benešov 3+ goals
23%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Benešov (draw refunded)
55%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benešov at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benešov attack 1.40 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Benešov defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benešov scores more
42%
level
24%
Sokol Živanice scores more
34%

Benešov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benešov vs Sokol Živanice

Benešov beat Sokol Živanice 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Konopiště in Benešov.