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Sokol Živanice vs Benátky nad Jizerou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
4/19/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 24Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sokol Živanice47%
×Draw23%
Benátky nad Jizerou30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.81
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.39

Sokol Živanice creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.47

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Benátky nad Jizerou
1.97

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
70%
Sokol Živanice or Benátky nad Jizerou
77%
Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou
53%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
26%
Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
84%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
54%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
27%
Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
75%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
40%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
61%
Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.81

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.47 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
47%
level
23%
Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
30%

Sokol Živanice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Živanice 4–1 Benátky nad Jizerou

Sokol Živanice beat Benátky nad Jizerou 4-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.