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Benátky nad Jizerou vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Benátky nad Jizerou
Benátky nad Jizerou
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
9/22/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 7Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Benátky nad Jizerou48%
×Draw24%
Sokol Živanice27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.65
Sokol Živanice
1.18

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.41
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Benátky nad Jizerou
1.22
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benátky nad Jizerou ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Benátky nad Jizerou or draw
73%
Benátky nad Jizerou or Sokol Živanice
76%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
52%

Winning margin

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
25%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
81%
Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
49%
Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
23%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
69%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
33%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
64%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benátky nad Jizerou at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.41 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more
48%
level
24%
Sokol Živanice scores more
27%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benátky nad Jizerou vs Sokol Živanice

Benátky nad Jizerou beat Sokol Živanice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Benátky nad Jizerou.