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Sokol Živanice vs Baník Souš — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baník Souš
Baník Souš
11/23/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 16Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Sokol Živanice44%
×Draw25%
Baník Souš31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.56
Baník Souš
1.27

Sokol Živanice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Baník Souš
1.24

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Baník Souš
1.47

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Baník Souš+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Baník Souš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
69%
Sokol Živanice or Baník Souš
75%
Draw or Baník Souš
56%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
22%
Baník Souš wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
21%
Baník Souš 1+ goals
72%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
36%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
59%
Baník Souš (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Baník Souš away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Baník Souš defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Baník Souš attack 1.24 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
44%
level
25%
Baník Souš scores more
31%

Sokol Živanice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Živanice vs Baník Souš

Sokol Živanice and Baník Souš drew 0-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.