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Baník Souš vs Sokol Živanice — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Baník Souš
Baník Souš
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
5/7/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 33Fotbalový stadion Josefa Masopusta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Baník Souš53%
×Draw24%
Sokol Živanice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Souš
1.75
Sokol Živanice
1.08

Baník Souš creates 62% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 64 away

creates per match

Baník Souš
1.61
Sokol Živanice
1.14

allows per match

Baník Souš
1.03
Sokol Živanice
1.88

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par
Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Sokol Živanice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw
77%
Baník Souš or Sokol Živanice
76%
Draw or Sokol Živanice
47%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+
29%
Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals
83%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
52%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
25%
Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
66%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
29%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)
69%
Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 1.61 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Baník Souš defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baník Souš scores more
53%
level
24%
Sokol Živanice scores more
23%

Baník Souš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Souš vs Sokol Živanice

Baník Souš and Sokol Živanice drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Josefa Masopusta in Most.