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Sokol Zápy vs Slovan Liberec II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
11/17/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 15Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sokol Zápy60%
×Draw20%
Slovan Liberec II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Zápy
2.22
Slovan Liberec II
1.21

Sokol Zápy creates 83% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sokol Zápy
2.40
Slovan Liberec II
1.48

allows per match

Sokol Zápy
0.93
Slovan Liberec II
2.05

finishing

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Zápy ↓

Slovan Liberec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Zápy or draw
80%
Sokol Zápy or Slovan Liberec II
80%
Draw or Slovan Liberec II
40%

Winning margin

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
37%
Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
65%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
38%
Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
34%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
75%
Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Zápy at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Zápy attack 2.40 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.22

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Sokol Zápy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sokol Zápy scores more
60%
level
20%
Slovan Liberec II scores more
20%

Sokol Zápy at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Zápy 6–0 Slovan Liberec II

Sokol Zápy beat Slovan Liberec II 6-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy in Brandýs nad Labem.