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Slovan Liberec II vs Sokol Zápy — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
11/9/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 14Doubi - Artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Slovan Liberec II42%
×Draw24%
Sokol Zápy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec II
1.60
Sokol Zápy
1.41

Slovan Liberec II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 79 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II
2.03
Sokol Zápy
1.37

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II
1.45
Sokol Zápy
1.18

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par
Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Sokol Zápy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw
66%
Slovan Liberec II or Sokol Zápy
76%
Draw or Sokol Zápy
58%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
80%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
47%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
22%
Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
76%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
41%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
55%
Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more
42%
level
24%
Sokol Zápy scores more
34%

Slovan Liberec II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Slovan Liberec II 1–1 Sokol Zápy

Slovan Liberec II and Sokol Zápy drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Doubi - Artificial grass.