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Sokol Zápy vs Jablonec II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Zápy
Sokol Zápy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jablonec II
Jablonec II
5/7/20253. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 33Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sokol Zápy57%
×Draw22%
Jablonec II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Zápy
1.96
Jablonec II
1.09

Sokol Zápy creates 80% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sokol Zápy
2.40
Jablonec II
1.26

allows per match

Sokol Zápy
0.93
Jablonec II
1.52

finishing

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par
Jablonec II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Zápy ↓

Jablonec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Zápy or draw
79%
Sokol Zápy or Jablonec II
78%
Draw or Jablonec II
43%

Winning margin

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+
34%
Jablonec II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals
86%
Sokol Zápy 2+ goals
58%
Sokol Zápy 3+ goals
31%
Jablonec II 1+ goals
66%
Jablonec II 2+ goals
30%
Jablonec II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)
73%
Jablonec II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Zápy at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.93 · 82 matches

Jablonec II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Zápy attack 2.40 + Jablonec II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jablonec II attack 1.26 + Sokol Zápy defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sokol Zápy scores more
57%
level
22%
Jablonec II scores more
21%

Sokol Zápy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Zápy 1–0 Jablonec II

Sokol Zápy beat Jablonec II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Zápy in Brandýs nad Labem.