Jablonec II 1–2 Sokol Zápy: Result & Stats

Jablonec II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sokol Zápy

3/1/2026

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 32Fotbalovy stadion Brizky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Jablonec II36%

×Draw25%

Sokol Zápy40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jablonec IIExpected goals in this matchSokol Zápy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.50

Jablonec II

1.41

Sokol Zápy

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

1.64

creates per match

1.37

1.64

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Jablonec II

1.64

Sokol Zápy

1.37

allows per match

Jablonec II

1.64

Sokol Zápy

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jablonec II+0.00on par

Sokol Zápy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec II ↓

Sokol Zápy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jablonec II or draw

60%

Jablonec II or Sokol Zápy

75%

Draw or Sokol Zápy

64%

Winning margin

Jablonec II wins by 2+

16%

Sokol Zápy wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Jablonec II 1+ goals

76%

Jablonec II 2+ goals

41%

Jablonec II 3+ goals

17%

Sokol Zápy 1+ goals

78%

Sokol Zápy 2+ goals

44%

Sokol Zápy 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jablonec II (draw refunded)

47%

Sokol Zápy (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 80 matches

Sokol Zápy away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.18 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec II attack 1.64 + Sokol Zápy defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sokol Zápy attack 1.37 + Jablonec II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jablonec II scores more

36%

level

25%

Sokol Zápy scores more

40%

Sokol Zápy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sokol Zápy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff