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Sokol Tasovice vs Sokol Lanžhot — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
6/9/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 26Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sokol Tasovice38%
×Draw23%
Sokol Lanžhot39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
1.59
Sokol Lanžhot
1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Sokol Lanžhot
1.75

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Sokol Lanžhot
1.12

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Sokol Lanžhot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
61%
Sokol Tasovice or Sokol Lanžhot
77%
Draw or Sokol Lanžhot
62%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
18%
Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
47%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
21%
Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
48%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
49%
Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Sokol Lanžhot away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sokol Lanžhot attack 1.75 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
38%
level
23%
Sokol Lanžhot scores more
39%

Sokol Lanžhot at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Tasovice 3–3 Sokol Lanžhot

Sokol Tasovice and Sokol Lanžhot drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice in Tasovice pod Hodonice.