Sokol Lanžhot 1–2 Sokol Tasovice: Result & Stats

Sokol Lanžhot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sokol Tasovice

3/9/2025

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 16Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot59%

×Draw21%

Sokol Tasovice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol LanžhotExpected goals in this matchSokol Tasovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.21

Sokol Lanžhot

2.15

Sokol Tasovice

1.21

Sokol Lanžhot creates 78% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

2.42

creates per match

1.57

0.85

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot

2.42

Sokol Tasovice

1.57

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot

0.85

Sokol Tasovice

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Sokol Tasovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw

79%

Sokol Lanžhot or Sokol Tasovice

79%

Draw or Sokol Tasovice

41%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+

36%

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals

88%

Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals

63%

Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals

36%

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals

70%

Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals

34%

Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)

74%

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more

59%

level

21%

Sokol Tasovice scores more

21%

Sokol Lanžhot at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff