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Sokol Tasovice vs FS Třebíč — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FS Třebíč
FS Třebíč
8/18/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sokol Tasovice53%
×Draw21%
FS Třebíč26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
FS Třebíč
1.38

Sokol Tasovice creates 49% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.00
FS Třebíč
1.23

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.52
FS Třebíč
2.13

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
FS Třebíč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

FS Třebíč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
74%
Sokol Tasovice or FS Třebíč
79%
Draw or FS Třebíč
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
31%
FS Třebíč wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
87%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
61%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
34%
FS Třebíč 1+ goals
75%
FS Třebíč 2+ goals
40%
FS Třebíč 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
67%
FS Třebíč (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches

FS Třebíč away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.00 + FS Třebíč defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.06

FS Třebíč attack 1.23 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
53%
level
21%
FS Třebíč scores more
26%

Sokol Tasovice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Tasovice 0–0 FS Třebíč

Sokol Tasovice and FS Třebíč drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice in Tasovice pod Hodonice.