Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Tasovice vs Dálnice Speřice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
6/9/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 29Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Sokol Tasovice66%
×Draw19%
Dálnice Speřice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Tasovice
2.33
Dálnice Speřice
1.05

Sokol Tasovice creates 122% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice
2.06
Dálnice Speřice
0.62

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice
1.49
Dálnice Speřice
2.59

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par
Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Dálnice Speřice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw
84%
Sokol Tasovice or Dálnice Speřice
81%
Draw or Dálnice Speřice
34%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
43%
Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
90%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
67%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
41%
Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
65%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
28%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
81%
Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.33

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more
66%
level
19%
Dálnice Speřice scores more
16%

Sokol Tasovice at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Tasovice 1–2 Dálnice Speřice

Dálnice Speřice beat Sokol Tasovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice in Tasovice pod Hodonice.