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Dálnice Speřice vs Sokol Tasovice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Dálnice Speřice
Dálnice Speřice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
10/20/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 12Hřiště TJ Speřice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Dálnice Speřice40%
×Draw23%
Sokol Tasovice37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dálnice Speřice
1.65
Sokol Tasovice
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 82 away

creates per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.41
Sokol Tasovice
1.57

allows per match

Dálnice Speřice
1.57
Sokol Tasovice
1.89

finishing

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par
Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dálnice Speřice ↓

Sokol Tasovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dálnice Speřice or draw
63%
Dálnice Speřice or Sokol Tasovice
77%
Draw or Sokol Tasovice
60%

Winning margin

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+
20%
Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals
81%
Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals
49%
Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals
23%
Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)
52%
Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dálnice Speřice at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dálnice Speřice attack 1.41 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Dálnice Speřice defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dálnice Speřice scores more
40%
level
23%
Sokol Tasovice scores more
37%

Dálnice Speřice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dálnice Speřice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dálnice Speřice vs Sokol Tasovice

Dálnice Speřice beat Sokol Tasovice 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Speřice in Jiřice.