Sokol Tasovice 2–0 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Sokol Tasovice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

8/21/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Stadion TJ Sokol Tasovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sokol Tasovice59%

×Draw19%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol TasoviceExpected goals in this matchBystřice nad Pernštejnem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.34

Sokol Tasovice

2.34

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.34

Sokol Tasovice creates 75% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

2.06

creates per match

1.19

1.49

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Sokol Tasovice

2.06

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.19

allows per match

Sokol Tasovice

1.49

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Tasovice ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sokol Tasovice or draw

79%

Sokol Tasovice or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

81%

Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

41%

Winning margin

Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+

38%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals

90%

Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals

67%

Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals

41%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

74%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

39%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)

74%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Tasovice at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Tasovice attack 2.06 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.34

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sokol Tasovice scores more

59%

level

19%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

21%

Sokol Tasovice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff