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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Sokol Tasovice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
CANC
14:30
Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
5/9/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 19Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem32%
×Draw22%
Sokol Tasovice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.60
Sokol Tasovice
1.97

Sokol Tasovice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 82 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Sokol Tasovice
1.57

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Sokol Tasovice
1.89

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Sokol Tasovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
54%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Sokol Tasovice
78%
Draw or Sokol Tasovice
68%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
15%
Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
80%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
47%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
22%
Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
86%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
58%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
41%
Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
32%
level
22%
Sokol Tasovice scores more
46%

Sokol Tasovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem host Sokol Tasovice

May 9, 2021: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem take on Sokol Tasovice in 4. liga - Divizie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem host Sokol Tasovice at Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.