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Sokol Nespeky vs Chomutov — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Nespeky
Sokol Nespeky
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Chomutov
Chomutov
8/12/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 2Hřiště Nespeky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Nespeky30%
×Draw25%
Chomutov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Nespeky
1.23
Chomutov
1.56

Chomutov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sokol Nespeky
1.20
Chomutov
1.60

allows per match

Sokol Nespeky
1.53
Chomutov
1.25

finishing

Sokol Nespeky+0.00on par
Chomutov+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Nespeky ↓

Chomutov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokol Nespeky or draw
55%
Sokol Nespeky or Chomutov
75%
Draw or Chomutov
70%

Winning margin

Sokol Nespeky wins by 2+
13%
Chomutov wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sokol Nespeky 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Nespeky 2+ goals
35%
Sokol Nespeky 3+ goals
13%
Chomutov 1+ goals
79%
Chomutov 2+ goals
46%
Chomutov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sokol Nespeky (draw refunded)
40%
Chomutov (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Nespeky at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Chomutov away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Nespeky attack 1.20 + Chomutov defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chomutov attack 1.60 + Sokol Nespeky defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Nespeky scores more
30%
level
25%
Chomutov scores more
45%

Chomutov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Nespeky 3–3 Chomutov

Sokol Nespeky and Chomutov drew 3-3 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště Nespeky in Nespeky.