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Chomutov vs Sokol Nespeky — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Chomutov
Chomutov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Nespeky
Sokol Nespeky
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 17Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chomutov70%
×Draw17%
Sokol Nespeky13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chomutov
2.48
Sokol Nespeky
0.95

Chomutov creates 161% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Chomutov
2.08
Sokol Nespeky
0.87

allows per match

Chomutov
1.02
Sokol Nespeky
2.87

finishing

Chomutov+0.00on par
Sokol Nespeky+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chomutov ↓

Sokol Nespeky →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chomutov or draw
87%
Chomutov or Sokol Nespeky
83%
Draw or Sokol Nespeky
30%

Winning margin

Chomutov wins by 2+
48%
Sokol Nespeky wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Chomutov 1+ goals
92%
Chomutov 2+ goals
70%
Chomutov 3+ goals
44%
Sokol Nespeky 1+ goals
61%
Sokol Nespeky 2+ goals
25%
Sokol Nespeky 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chomutov (draw refunded)
85%
Sokol Nespeky (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chomutov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Sokol Nespeky away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chomutov attack 2.08 + Sokol Nespeky defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sokol Nespeky attack 0.87 + Chomutov defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Chomutov scores more
70%
level
17%
Sokol Nespeky scores more
13%

Chomutov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chomutov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Chomutov 2–0 Sokol Nespeky

Chomutov beat Sokol Nespeky 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech in Chomutov.