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Sokol Markovo vs Sadovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
6 – 0
Sadovo
Sadovo
12/1/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 17Stadion Sokol (Markovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokol Markovo75%
×Draw15%
Sadovo10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
2.72
Sadovo
0.89

Sokol Markovo creates 206% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Sadovo
0.12

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Sadovo
3.76

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Sadovo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Sadovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
90%
Sokol Markovo or Sadovo
85%
Draw or Sadovo
25%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
54%
Sadovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
93%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
75%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
50%
Sadovo 1+ goals
59%
Sadovo 2+ goals
22%
Sadovo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
88%
Sadovo (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Sadovo away — creates 0.12, concedes 3.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Sadovo defence 3.76 → ÷2 → 2.72

Sadovo attack 0.12 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
75%
level
15%
Sadovo scores more
10%

Sokol Markovo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Sadovo

Sokol Markovo beat Sadovo 6-0 in Third League - Southeast on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol (Markovo).