Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sadovo vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sadovo
Sadovo
FT
1 – 2
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
5/14/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 34Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sadovo50%
×Draw24%
Sokol Markovo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sadovo
1.69
Sokol Markovo
1.13

Sadovo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sadovo
0.94
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Sadovo
1.53
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Sadovo+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sadovo ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sadovo or draw
75%
Sadovo or Sokol Markovo
76%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
50%

Winning margin

Sadovo wins by 2+
27%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sadovo 1+ goals
82%
Sadovo 2+ goals
50%
Sadovo 3+ goals
24%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
31%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sadovo (draw refunded)
66%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sadovo at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sadovo attack 0.94 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Sadovo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sadovo scores more
50%
level
24%
Sokol Markovo scores more
25%

Sadovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sadovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sadovo 1–2 Sokol Markovo

Sokol Markovo beat Sadovo 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sadovo (Sadovo).