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Sokol Markovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
2 – 1
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
5/21/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 29Stadion Sokol (Markovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Sokol Markovo33%
×Draw24%
Maritsa Plovdiv43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.42
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.63

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 15% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 81 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
57%
Sokol Markovo or Maritsa Plovdiv
76%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
67%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
15%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
76%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
41%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
17%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
80%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
48%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
44%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
33%
level
24%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
43%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Sokol Markovo beat Maritsa Plovdiv 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol (Markovo).