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Maritsa Plovdiv vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
FT
6 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
8/24/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 4Sporten kompleks Botev 1912

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Maritsa Plovdiv76%
×Draw16%
Sokol Markovo9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Sokol Markovo
0.68

Maritsa Plovdiv creates 259% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 98 away

creates per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
2.44
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Maritsa Plovdiv
0.63
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritsa Plovdiv ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Maritsa Plovdiv or draw
91%
Maritsa Plovdiv or Sokol Markovo
84%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
24%

Winning margin

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
53%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
91%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
70%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
43%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
49%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
15%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
90%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritsa Plovdiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.63 · 81 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 2.44 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.44

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
76%
level
16%
Sokol Markovo scores more
9%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Maritsa Plovdiv 6–0 Sokol Markovo

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Sokol Markovo 6-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sporten kompleks Botev 1912 in Plovdiv.