Sokol Markovo 3–0 Levski Karlovo: Result & Stats

Sokol Markovo

FT

3 – 0

Levski Karlovo

11/12/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sokol Markovo51%

×Draw22%

Levski Karlovo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol MarkovoExpected goals in this matchLevski Karlovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.35

Sokol Markovo

1.95

Levski Karlovo

1.35

Sokol Markovo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 136 away

1.68

creates per match

1.04

1.66

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Sokol Markovo

1.68

Levski Karlovo

1.04

allows per match

Sokol Markovo

1.66

Levski Karlovo

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Levski Karlovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw

73%

Sokol Markovo or Levski Karlovo

78%

Draw or Levski Karlovo

49%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

29%

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

86%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

58%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

31%

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

74%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

39%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

66%

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.95

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more

51%

level

22%

Levski Karlovo scores more

27%

Sokol Markovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff