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Levski Karlovo vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
5/20/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Levski Karlovo62%
×Draw21%
Sokol Markovo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.97
Sokol Markovo
0.92

Levski Karlovo creates 114% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 98 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
83%
Levski Karlovo or Sokol Markovo
79%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
38%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
37%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
86%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
58%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
31%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
60%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
23%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
78%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
62%
level
21%
Sokol Markovo scores more
17%

Levski Karlovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Karlovo 3–0 Sokol Markovo

Levski Karlovo beat Sokol Markovo 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.