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Sokol Markovo vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
1 – 5
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
10/7/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sokol Markovo41%
×Draw24%
Gigant Saedinenie35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.55
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
65%
Sokol Markovo or Gigant Saedinenie
76%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
59%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
20%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
20%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
76%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
41%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
54%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
41%
level
24%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
35%

Sokol Markovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Gigant Saedinenie

Gigant Saedinenie beat Sokol Markovo 5-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.