Gigant Saedinenie 1–0 Sokol Markovo: Result & Stats

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Markovo

10/26/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 14Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie70%

×Draw19%

Sokol Markovo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchSokol Markovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.73

Gigant Saedinenie

2.13

Sokol Markovo

0.73

Gigant Saedinenie creates 192% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 98 away

1.83

creates per match

0.72

0.74

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Sokol Markovo

0.72

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Sokol Markovo

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Sokol Markovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

88%

Gigant Saedinenie or Sokol Markovo

81%

Draw or Sokol Markovo

30%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

45%

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

88%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

63%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

35%

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

52%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

17%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

86%

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.13

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

70%

level

19%

Sokol Markovo scores more

12%

Gigant Saedinenie at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff